The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves are forming, the overall structure stays intact. This allows for accurate forecasting. It's worth remembering that wave patterns do not always look exactly like textbook examples.

The upward trend segment continues to build, and the news background mostly supports currencies other than the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to increase budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have not yet been achieved. Trump's "One Big Law" will add 3 trillion dollars to the U.S. national debt, and the president continues to raise and impose new tariffs. The market views Trump's first six months in office with skepticism, despite the 3% GDP growth in Q2.

At this point, it can be assumed that wave 4 has been completed. If this is indeed the case, impulse wave 5 has begun forming, with potential targets extending up to the 1.25 level. Naturally, the corrective structure of wave 4 could take on a more extended, five-wave form, but I am proceeding based on the most likely scenario.

The EUR/USD pair posted a slight decline on Thursday, but overall, the dollar continues to lose the advantage it had built over the past month and a half. This local dip in the pair is insignificant — merely a standard pullback. What matters far more is the news backdrop, which in the past two weeks has been overwhelming in volume and impact. News is pouring in.

Last Friday, the market was truly shaken when all key U.S. reports showed disappointing results. This week, Trump continued to impose and raise tariffs while also calling for peace in Ukraine. What else can the market do? For the past six months, it has repeatedly signaled that new tariffs = trouble for the global economy, price increases, inflation, and disrupted supply chains. Since the source of these problems is the United States, demand for the U.S. dollar continues to decline.

This week, Trump started by raising tariffs on India, marking yet another escalation in the global trade war. He is demanding that New Delhi stop buying Russian oil and gas to cut off "funding" for the war in Ukraine. However, it increasingly seems that this isn't really about the war. Trump simply wants the entire world to buy weapons, energy resources, and all kinds of goods and raw materials from the United States. That's why he uses any convenient excuse to force countries to spend their money in America.

Just today, it was reported that Trump's special envoy held talks with Vladimir Putin, and a personal meeting between Putin, Trump, and possibly Zelensky is expected soon. The conflict in Ukraine may be on the verge of resolution — something Trump is actively pursuing. If the U.S. administration is working so hard to achieve peace in Ukraine through negotiations, then why is it simultaneously putting pressure on Russia via India? There's only one answer: to profit. Business is business.

Summary Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair is continuing to build its upward trend segment. The wave structure remains highly dependent on the news flow tied to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The target range for this trend could extend as far as the 1.25 level. Accordingly, I continue to favor buy positions, aiming for 1.1875 (which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. It is assumed that wave 4 has been completed, making this a favorable moment for buying.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often undergo changes.
2. If you're uncertain about market conditions, it's better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss protective orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.