Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.92 occurred as the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, a significant drop in the pair did not materialize.

The absence of key fundamental data from the U.S. had a positive effect on the outlook for the U.S. dollar, which strengthened quite well against the Japanese yen at the end of last week.

However, one should not forget that the situation in the currency markets can change very quickly. In the coming weeks, close attention should be paid to the publication of new economic data — especially on inflation and employment in Japan and the United States. Any significant deviations from expectations could cause sharp fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate. In addition, geopolitical conditions around the world will remain an important factor, as they can also influence investor sentiment. Overall, despite recent strengthening, the outlook for the U.S. dollar remains uncertain — especially in light of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut. Investors are advised to stay cautious and diversify their portfolios to reduce risk.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 148.36 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 148.76 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.76, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the reverse direction from that level. It's best to return to buying the pair on pullbacks or a serious drop in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.12 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite target levels of 148.36 and 148.76 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below the 148.12 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 147.68 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the reverse direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the reverse direction from that level. It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.36 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.12 and 147.68 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed, or profits manually locked in, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed, or profits manually locked in, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must make entry decisions very carefully. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you trade large volumes without using proper money management.

Remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for any intraday trader.