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26.09.2025 10:15 AMOn the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Thursday and ended the day within the support zone of 1.3332–1.3357. A rebound of quotes from this zone would work in favor of the pound and lead to some growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.3332–1.3357 level would increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the next corrective level of 127.2% at 1.3226.
The wave pattern has shifted to a bearish outlook. This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The latest completed upward wave broke the previous peak, but the most recent downward wave easily broke the last low. The information background last week was mostly neutral for the pound, but events on Thursday and Friday changed things for the worse. The negative news flow for the British currency continues, although further strengthening of the U.S. dollar also depends on upcoming news.
It has been a "black" week for the pound. The U.K.'s budget issues, new criticism of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, speeches by Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey, as well as reports on U.S. GDP and durable goods orders — all of these events in one way or another helped the bears. For the first time in a while, traders did not ignore the positive news for the dollar and took full advantage of it. Today the market may take a brief pause due to a quiet economic calendar, but the PCE Index could have a positive impact on the dollar. The higher the inflation in the U.S., the better for the dollar, as the Fed is less likely to rush into loosening its monetary policy. Therefore, a PCE reading above 0.3% for August would once again support the bears.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator and following the Fed and Bank of England meetings. The downward movement continues toward the support level of 1.3339–1.3435. A rebound from the 1.3378–1.3435 level would work in favor of the pound and some upward correction. A drop below this zone would mean further decline toward the corrective level of 76.4% at 1.3118.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became sharply more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 5,947, while the number of Short positions fell by 21,078. The gap between Long and Short positions is now roughly 80,000 versus 87,000. Bullish traders are leaning the scale back in their favor.
In my opinion, the pound still has potential for further decline. The news background during the first six months of the year was dreadful for the U.S. dollar, but it is slowly leveling out. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the American economy in Q2 is expected to recover thanks to tariffs and various investment initiatives in the U.S. At the same time, speculation over a potential loosening of the Fed's monetary policy in the second half of the year continues to put significant pressure on the dollar, as the U.S. labor market weakens and unemployment rises. Therefore, I currently don't see strong reasons for a bearish trend reversal.
News Calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:
The economic calendar for September 26 includes three roughly equal-impact events. Market reaction to the news may weaken in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Selling the pair was possible when it closed below the 1.3482 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3425 and 1.3332 — both targets have been reached. New sales are possible if a close occurs below 1.3332, with a target of 1.3226. Buyers may consider entering long positions on a rebound from the 1.3332–1.3357 level, targeting 1.3425 and 1.3482.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3332 to 1.3725 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
