Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The 159.95 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential.

In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the JOLTS job openings report, and a speech by FOMC member Michael Barr. The ISM index reflects the condition of the manufacturing sector, while job openings data serve as an important indicator of the labor market. Strong figures could provide additional support for the dollar by increasing expectations for the Fed's interest rate and pushing up US bond yields, especially against the backdrop of the hawkish stance following Jackson Hole. For the yen, a stronger dollar creates a risk of further weakness, as it widens the policy divergence between the decisive Fed and the much more cautious Bank of Japan. This divergence has recently been weighing on the Japanese currency. Strong data could push USD/JPY higher, especially since the recent weak Japanese Manufacturing PMI has already reduced demand for the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point is reached around 160.11 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 160.44 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.44, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the outlook is far from certain. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 160.11 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.92 and 159.55 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.92 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.55, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 160.11 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.92 and 159.55 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.