Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The first test of the 1.1411 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair didn't fall significantly, and shortly afterward, there was another test of 1.1411, coinciding with MACD being in the oversold zone. This allowed for an exit from short positions and a reversal into long positions. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the euro will largely depend on the upcoming U.S. inflation data. Market participants and analysts are focused on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, including the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. If inflation exceeds expectations, this may strengthen the assumption that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep rates elevated. Such a scenario would likely lead to a stronger dollar and a decline in the euro. Conversely, if inflation comes in below expectations, pressure on the Fed would ease, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy easing. In this case, the dollar may weaken, and the euro could strengthen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1441 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1479. At 1.1479, I plan to exit the market and sell in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point pullback. A bullish euro scenario today is possible only after weak inflation data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1421 twice consecutively, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1441 and 1.1479 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1421 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1381, where I will exit and reverse into long positions (aiming for a 20–25 point pullback). Selling pressure could return after strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1441 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to 1.1421 and 1.1381 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price where you can buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – the suggested take-profit level or point to lock in profit; above this, further growth is unlikely
• Thin red line – the entry price where you can sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – the suggested take-profit level or point to lock in profit; below this, further decline is unlikely
• MACD indicator – pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you do decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you're not using proper money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.