The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months. The formation of an upward trend segment continues, supported by the news background that favors all currencies except the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was meant to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have yet to be achieved; trade deals are signed with difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" is expected to increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market holds a very low opinion of Trump's performance in the first six months of the year, viewing his actions as a threat to U.S. stability and prosperity.

At present, wave 3 is presumably still forming and may extend further than its current length. However, its internal structure has taken on a five-wave shape and may therefore be complete. If this assumption is correct, the rise in quotes will continue in the coming months, although in the short term we may see a corrective wave pattern—or even a single corrective wave, which is possible during a strong uptrend.

The EUR/USD pair rose by several dozen basis points on Monday. The amplitude of price movements remains low, and the pair continues to follow the current wave structure with remarkable precision. For several weeks, the dollar inched upward toward success, but luck eventually ran out. The current wave structure still indicates the development of an upward trend segment, which does not yet appear complete. Therefore, we may see a corrective wave or even a full corrective five-wave pattern, but the overall expectation remains for further growth in the pair's quotes.

In the past few weeks, I personally have not seen a single reason for optimism regarding the U.S. dollar. My view does not always align with my colleagues. Some have seen positive developments in the high likelihood of a trade agreement with the EU or in the Fed's perceived hawkish monetary stance. I would like to remind readers that the Fed's policy has remained unchanged in 2025 and is the most hawkish among major central banks. In fact, the Fed has cut rates only three times, totaling 100 basis points—over a span of two years during which the market has been eagerly expecting and even demanding rate cuts. In my view, that's very little, but I've often written that the market demands too much from the U.S. central bank—and time and again, these expectations have proven wrong.

As for the deal with the European Union—there are still no signs of one. And Donald Trump continues to threaten Brussels with new tariffs. The dollar's only chance lies in the third corrective wave of the current wave structure.

Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains fully dependent on the news background—particularly Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy—and there are still no signs of improvement. The targets for the current trend may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level and beyond. A failed attempt to break below the 1.1572 level (100.0% Fibonacci) indicates that the market is ready for new purchases.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.