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15.07.2026 04:07 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair also traded very cautiously on Tuesday, despite Kevin Warsh's speech, the publication of the U.S. inflation report, and a new escalation in the Middle East. In principle, each of these events can be viewed through different lenses by any trader or investor. For example, is the Strait of Hormuz blocked again? That's bad news, marked in red. But at the same time, it has been blocked much more frequently than it has been open over the last 4-5 months, so nothing new has happened. The world is gradually learning to live without Middle Eastern oil. It is currently going poorly, but the world is not solely dependent on Middle Eastern countries for oil and gas reserves. Those who need it will find alternative routes, as always.
The same applies to inflation. Inflation slowed to 3.5% in June, as expected, since oil prices dropped to pre-war levels that month. However, going forward, inflation will be entirely dependent on geopolitics, and predicting how events will unfold in the Middle East and what oil prices will be a month from now is simply impossible. If the situation escalates, energy prices will likely continue to climb. Thus, the June inflation report does not allow for any long-term conclusions.
During his speech in the U.S. Congress, Kevin Warsh confirmed that inflation is an issue but predictably made no statements regarding monetary policy for the remainder of the year. The Federal Reserve continues to take a wait-and-see position, as the situation in the Middle East could change at any moment. The Strait of Hormuz can be "opened" in five minutes simply by stopping strikes on ships passing through it. Similarly, it can be "closed" in five minutes. Therefore, even within a single day, the situation can change several times.
Should we expect a new strengthening of the U.S. dollar? We believe so, but only if the Fed moves from words and hints to action. If inflation in the U.S. remains persistently high and the Fed not only raises the key rate once but also continues to implement such hikes, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, despite initial expectations of its decline at the beginning of the year.
However, we still do not believe this scenario holds. We continue to think that Kevin Warsh will do everything to avoid tightening monetary policy and will advocate for easing at the first opportunity. Of course, FOMC officials have their heads on their shoulders, and Jerome Powell, who remains the Fed's chairman for another two years, will help them make the right decision. Thus, the situation is complex not only in the Middle East but also within the Federal Reserve. The battles for 2026 are shaping up to be quite fierce, and market sentiment may change many times. Therefore, we would not even venture into medium-term forecasts at this point. In the long term, the dollar remains in a downward trend, but in the short term, it can move in either direction, depending on unpredictable events.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 70 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Wednesday, July 15, we therefore expect movement within the range limited by levels 1.3309 and 1.3449. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory twice and formed two bullish divergences, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend. However, the indicator has now formed a bearish divergence.
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is proving super positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors and the Fed's readiness to raise key rates. However, a flat is maintained on the weekly timeframe between 1.3150 and 1.3780, within a four-year upward trend. Long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3449 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line allows for trading down to a target of 1.3306.
