empty
27.06.2025 12:08 AM
AUD/USD. Resistance Level 0.6600 on the Horizon

The Australian dollar tested a significant resistance level at 0.6550 on Thursday, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe. This is the highest price since November of last year. Notably, AUD/USD traders ignored the CPI growth report from Australia, which came in the "red zone," reflecting a slowdown in inflation. The aussie was supported by more significant factors.

This image is no longer relevant

Key Drivers Behind AUD Strength

First, the Australian dollar is in demand amid easing geopolitical tensions following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. Interest in risk assets has increased, including interest in the Aussie.

Second, the U.S. dollar is under serious pressure. Again, this is due to a decline in risk-off sentiment, but that's not all. The greenback has been hit by Donald Trump's recent statements about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Additionally, a Wall Street Journal report revealed that the U.S. President plans to choose Powell's successor in early fall (his term ends in May next year). This has raised concerns among traders that the Fed may become a "branch" of the Trump administration. Trump is known for his preference for aggressively easing monetary policy, and it's almost certain that the next Fed chair will share his views.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged into the 96.00 range, hitting a three-year low. Accordingly, the AUD/USD pair reached its highest level in seven months.

At the same time, the above-mentioned Australian inflation report was largely ignored by the market. More prominent developments overshadowed this fundamental factor.

Australia's Inflation Data in Focus

Still, it's important to note that Australia's monthly CPI slowed for the first time in six months—and more than expected. For three months (February to April), the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4%. It was expected to slow slightly to 2.3% in May but instead fell to 2.1%, the lowest since October of last year.

On one hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) primarily focuses on quarterly data (Q1 CPI was at 2.4%, the same as in Q4 last year). On the other hand, Q2 inflation data will only be published at the end of next month, i.e., after the RBA's July meeting (scheduled for July 8).

Why Did the AUD/USD Pair Ignore the CPI Report?

First, AUD/USD traders are primarily reacting to the U.S. dollar's behavior, which is acting as a driver of price movement. The aussie tends to follow the greenback's lead. As noted above, the U.S. Dollar Index is in a sharp downward spiral after a steep rally during the Israel-Iran conflict.

Another weight dragging on the greenback is weak macroeconomic data. Notably, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell into the "red zone," dropping to 93 instead of the expected increase to 99.4. Furthermore, U.S. GDP growth figures were revised downward. According to the final estimate, U.S. GDP in Q1 contracted by 0.5% (worse than the previously reported -0.2%).

Second, the outcome of the July RBA meeting is seen as a done deal. Most analysts believe the central bank will leave all monetary policy parameters unchanged next month. Especially since the U.S. and China still haven't finalized their announced trade deal. In early June, Washington and Beijing reached a framework agreement that sets 55% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10% duties on U.S. goods. The agreement now must be approved by Trump and Xi Jinping. A meeting is expected by the fall—likely in August. Hence, the RBA may opt for a wait-and-see approach due to this factor.

As for inflation, as mentioned, the RBA is focused on quarterly data, due out at the end of July. It's too early to talk about a sustained monthly CPI slowdown without more data. Moreover, consumer inflation expectations in Australia recently jumped to 5.0% from 4.1%, so the "inflation factor" is unlikely to be decisive—at least for the July meeting.

Conclusion and Technical Outlook

Thus, the current fundamental backdrop supports further growth in AUD/USD, even as the pair trades near 7-month highs. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the pair is testing the resistance level at 0.6550 (upper Bollinger Band). Buyers have so far failed to break this level decisively, so long positions are only advisable once the pair consolidates above 0.6550. In that case, the next target for the upward movement would be 0.6600—this is the upper Bollinger Band on the W1 timeframe.

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD: Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par USD/CAD ampliou os ganhos pelo quarto dia consecutivo, impulsionado pelo persistente interesse de compra no dólar americano. Além disso, a leve queda nos preços do petróleo está

Irina Yanina 18:25 2025-07-29 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

Durante o fim de semana, Estados Unidos e União Europeia firmaram um acordo comercial, o que reforçou o otimismo já impulsionado recentemente pelo pacto entre EUA e Japão e aliviou

Irina Yanina 18:15 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin elimina os excessos do mercado

Tendências dão lugar a consolidações. Consolidações abrem caminho para novas tendências. Essa é a natureza do mercado — e o Bitcoin não é exceção. A incapacidade dos compradores de retomar

Marek Petkovich 17:19 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Reunião do FOMC entra em foco (potencial para queda contínua do EUR/USD e GBP/USD)

Enquanto os participantes do mercado continuam avaliando as reais perspectivas de uma possível "dominação" dos Estados Unidos sobre a Europa e sua economia — acreditando que qualquer grau de certeza

Pati Gani 16:34 2025-07-29 UTC+2

O prêmio de risco do mercado vem se reduzindo gradualmente

Às vezes, o que parece simples à primeira vista pode esconder complexidades importantes. A reação tímida do S&P 500 àquele que talvez seja o acordo comercial mais monumental de Donald

Marek Petkovich 15:29 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Por que o euro está caindo acentuadamente?

O euro despencou mais de 1% após a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos fecharem um acordo comercial — um acordo que, aparentemente, **não conta com o apoio unânime**

Jakub Novak 14:01 2025-07-29 UTC+2

O acordo entre a UE e os EUA é um desastre para a economia europeia

O euro retomou rapidamente sua queda após uma recuperação no pregão da manhã durante as negociações na Ásia. Aparentemente, os investidores perceberam que o acordo comercial entre

Jakub Novak 20:52 2025-07-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Análise e previsão

O iene japonês continua perdendo terreno em relação ao dólar americano, que se fortalece. As notícias sobre o acordo comercial firmado entre os Estados Unidos e a União Europeia

Irina Yanina 20:41 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Libra britânica – Prévia semanal

Para a libra esterlina, a nova semana promete ser relativamente tranquila. Não há dados relevantes programados para o Reino Unido, o que deve direcionar toda a atenção para o dólar

Chin Zhao 20:30 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Dólar norte-americano – Previsão semanal

Aqui estamos nós, finalmente voltando a falar sobre o dólar e os Estados Unidos. Vamos começar pelos eventos mais importantes: a reunião da Reserva Federal. Embora ninguém espere

Chin Zhao 17:44 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.