Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 146.51 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a 20-point decline.

The FOMC minutes released yesterday revealed internal disagreement: some participants believed tariffs would trigger only a short-term price spike without affecting long-term inflation forecasts. However, the majority leaned toward the view that tariffs could exert more persistent inflationary pressure. Based on this, it appears unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the summer months. This stance supports the dollar on the global market and puts some pressure on the yen.

Today's data on Japan's corporate goods price index was ignored by the market since the results matched economists' expectations. Traders are advised to be cautious and wait for clearer market signals before making major decisions. Progress in trade talks between the U.S. and Japan could support the yen. Otherwise, USD/JPY may continue to rise.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today after the price reaches the 146.41 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 146.75 (thicker green line). Around 146.75, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point retracement. Buying is preferable during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.14 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward reversal. A rise to the 146.41 and 146.75 levels can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below the 146.14 level (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick drop. The key target for sellers will be 145.73, where I plan to exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point bounce. Significant downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.41 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the 146.14 and 145.73 levels can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for taking profit or closing positions, as further growth above this point is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for taking profit or closing positions, as further decline below this point is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to avoid trading before key fundamental reports to prevent getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on short-term market movements is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.