The dovish stance of Powell. Only the laziest analyst has not written about it in recent days. In my view, it would be more accurate to say: "Powell's dovish stance, which can easily turn hawkish." Or: "Powell's dovish stance, which doesn't exist." One must understand that there is Powell's opinion, and there is the way the market interpreted what he said. The market has wanted to see a rate cut since 2024, and once again, it saw a signal for a September cut. That is why demand for the U.S. currency fell sharply on Friday, even though, paradoxically, the probability of another round of easing priced in by the futures market actually decreased after his speech.

It is worth noting that Powell's so-called hints about a September rate cut may not have been hints at all. The Fed chair only had to utter the phrase "rate cut," and the market did not bother to clarify what exactly he meant — whether he was speaking about timing, whether he implied a near-term move, or on what conditions a new round of easing would depend. Market participants overlooked all this information.

Moreover, this misinterpretation or ambiguous reading concerns not only traders or analysts but also large commercial banks, each with entire research departments. For example, Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank now expect a 0.25% rate cut in September, while Bank of America does not. Why? Does Bank of America lack an analytical department, or does it have access to insider information?

I believe Bank of America is simply not rushing to conclusions. Powell himself said that the upcoming reports on inflation and the labor market would be decisive. So why hurry? The labor market could recover in August, and inflation may again prove too low to be concerning.

Bank of America also noted that it sees a risk of a policy error by the central bank, as inflation is moving toward 3%. I would add that as of Monday, the probability of a September 17 rate cut has risen again — to 86.2% — but doubts remain.

Wave pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of this trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider purchases with targets near 1.1875 (which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci) and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is still a good time for buying.

Wave pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave pattern, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the bullish trend segment are now located around 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the corrective wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 within 5 may also have been completed. Therefore, I recommend purchases with a target of 1.4017.

Basic principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.