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28.08.2025 06:52 AM
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited movement similar to that of the EUR/USD pair—first an unfounded drop, then a more logical rise. Recall that this week, President Trump increased tariffs on imports from India, marking a new escalation in the global trade war. Trump also started a new round of conflict with the Federal Reserve, simultaneously firing and not firing Lisa Cook. Both factors are bearish for the US dollar. Thus, already this week, the US currency could have shown a substantial decline. The market is not yet in a hurry to factor these in, but we believe it's just a matter of time. The market still isn't seeing any positive news from the other side of the Atlantic. Therefore, the dollar simply has no positive growth factors. Since no currency can fall forever, the dollar occasionally strengthens due to technical factors.
On Wednesday, there were enough trading signals within the 5-minute timeframe for you to act on. Overnight and in the morning, the price first broke below the 1.3466–1.3475 area, then bounced up from beneath it. Thus, novice traders could open short positions. A few hours later, the price reached the 1.3413–1.3421 area, generating a buy signal. Shorts should be closed there, and longs opened. After a few more hours, the price reached and surpassed the 1.3466–1.3475 area again, so you could remain in profitable long positions up to now.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD indicates that the downtrend has ended and a new uptrend is underway. The fundamental and macroeconomic background has not become any more attractive for the dollar recently, so it is unlikely to expect a more substantial rally. Thus, as before, we're only looking north. Any news about an escalation of the trade war, a de-escalation in Ukraine, or Trump's pressure on the Fed would potentially lead to a new drop in the US currency.
On Thursday, GBP/USD may start a new downward move, as it bounced overnight from the 1.3518–1.3525 area. At the same time, overcoming this area is more likely and would allow new long positions targeting 1.3574–1.3590.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade the following levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3518–1.3532, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. For Thursday, there are no important UK data or events scheduled, and in the US, only a largely insignificant second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
