Trade review and advice on trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 147.96 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair did not develop into a significant rally.

Yesterday, demand for the dollar in the USD/JPY pair failed to return, despite rather restrictive statements from US Federal Reserve officials. Moreover, there was even some weakening of the dollar's position, likely linked to the market reassessing the prospects for further Fed rate cuts. Investors seem to have concluded that the easing cycle will continue in the near term, as increasing attention is being paid to risks of slowing US economic growth.

The pair's further direction will be determined by US statistics, so in the first half of the day nothing significant is likely to happen—especially given the absence of Japanese data. For this reason, it is better to stick to range trading, with a growing emphasis on further strengthening of the dollar against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today around 147.91 (green line on the chart) with a target at 148.33 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.33, I intend to exit buys and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move back. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 147.71, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 147.91 and 148.33 can then be expected.

Sell scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout of 147.71 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.28, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling is preferable from higher levels. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 147.91, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 147.71 and 147.28 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.