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26.09.2025 07:47 AMA test of the 148.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero mark, which limited the upside potential for the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed the entire upward move.
The upward revision of US Q2 GDP to 3.8% from 3.0% acted as a catalyst not only for dollar strength but also triggered a real storm across currency markets—most notably seen in the sharp sell-off of the Japanese yen. This unexpected acceleration in the US economy has given the dollar's sails a boost, propelling it confidently forward, while the yen has suffered the brunt of the move. Investors, buoyed by positive news from the US, rushed to dump the yen in favor of more attractive US dollar-denominated assets. This led to a steep decline in the Japanese currency, making many ponder the further prospects of Japan's economy. Dollar strength against the yen isn't just numbers on the screen—it's a signal about diverging monetary policies, although this gap might narrow in the near future.
Today, Tokyo Consumer Price Index data was released, matching economists' expectations at 2.5%. Core prices also held steady from last month, at 2.5%. The yen, seemingly under a spell, showed no reaction to these releases. This raises questions about what is driving the Japanese currency lately. Perhaps markets have already priced in current inflation and are waiting for more substantial catalysts. Either way, the lack of reaction to Tokyo inflation data is a signal worth watching closely.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point near 149.78 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.20 (represented by the thicker green line on the chart). Near 150.20, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip reversal from the level). It's best to return to longs on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just beginning to rise from this level.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 149.60 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This should limit the pair's downside and trigger a reversal upward. Look for a move up to 149.78 and 150.20.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 149.60 (red line on the chart), which should quickly push the pair lower. The key bearish target will be 149.19, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (20–25 pip reversal from the level). It's generally best to sell at the highest possible price. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just beginning to decline from the zero line.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 149.78 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit upside and trigger a downward reversal. Expect a move down to 149.60 and 149.19.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
