Recently, Donald Trump also stated that if Iran refuses to return to the negotiating table and open the Strait of Hormuz, America will unblock it, capture it, and control it. Trump seems to have already begun calculating the profits that the strait will bring to the U.S., but in practice, this plan appears completely unrealistic. Experts who have studied the Middle East for years warned that Iran is not Venezuela, and taking it over in a few days is not feasible. However, Trump believed in his own strength, influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited the White House before the military operation began. We can all see the outcome of that now.

Now, Trump aims to seize the Strait of Hormuz (as he previously did with Greenland, Canada, Cuba, and other territories). In practice, the American fleet will not be able to ensure complete control and security of the strait. This is simply impossible since the strait is located off the coast of Iran, which can strike ships passing through it from any point on its territory. The leader of the White House also acknowledged that ground forces might need to be employed in the confrontation with Iran, but considering the experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, no Americans will support this decision. Yes, Trump might make this decision on his own, but in that case, in a few months, the Democrats will undoubtedly control both the upper and lower chambers of Congress. Essentially, the U.S. president finds himself in a situation where he has nothing to lose. The further he goes into the woods, the more wood he will accumulate.

Political scientists also report that the ruling party almost always loses midterm elections in Congress. This is due to the high expectations placed on the new administration, which are rarely met in practice. In our case, the hopes are not only unmet; they are completely shattered. Americans are unlikely to forget the consequences of the trade war, the war in Iran, and Trump's economic, social, and immigration policies. Therefore, the further the American president goes in the Middle East, the more American citizens will vote not for the Democrats, but against the Republicans. As I said, the Democrats are now Iran's best ally and vice versa.

The Democrats oppose the war with Iran and demand its cessation. This slogan may be enough for a crushing victory in the elections. Americans see no need for a war with Iran, nor any logic behind it. Instead, they notice the prices at gas stations and in stores.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend, while in the short term, it is in a downward segment of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to attempt to form long positions, but the instrument may still drop to the 13th figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often brings surprises, so I would already be inclined towards buying now.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become quite complex. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, whereas for EUR/USD, five waves may have been completed. Consequently, the British pound may establish another wave down, similar to the euro, but this wave could serve as the second within a new upward segment of the trend. Thus, a divergence in the wave counts of the euro and pound will exist, but it will be insignificant and minor. Based on this, I expect a pullback downward soon, followed by the formation of a new upward trend segment with initial targets around the 37-38 figures.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of market movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.