Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. Only two are noteworthy: the final estimate of Germany's Q1 GDP and April's UK retail sales data. The German GDP report is expected to have no impact on the euro's exchange rate, while the UK retail report may exert only a very weak and short-lived influence on the British pound. As for the U.S., no economic reports—not even minor ones—are scheduled for today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Friday's fundamental events, we can highlight speeches from Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook and European Central Bank representatives Philip Lane and Luis de Guindos. However, as previously mentioned, such speeches currently have no impact on the market, as the central banks' policies and stances are already fully understood, and the market continues to trade based solely on one key factor.

We believe that the only factor still mattering to the market is the trade war, which—while gradually de-escalating—is still ongoing. Donald Trump continues to announce upcoming trade agreements, but this offers little support to the dollar. The greenback's decline may persist if Trump starts introducing new tariffs or raising existing ones or fails to sign trade agreements with most countries. Moreover, the dollar may continue to fall without new tariffs, as market sentiment toward the U.S. President and his policies remains notably negative.

Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction. Yesterday, the euro failed to rise due to a weak macroeconomic backdrop, while the British pound continued climbing. Today, we do not rule out the possibility of gains in both pairs. The movement may be modest or flat, but we see no reason for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at this point.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.