Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but most of them are secondary. For example, the euro area GDP report will be released in its second estimate, which is objectively the least important of all. The U.S. Producer Price Index and jobless claims also pale in comparison with other reports and the broader fundamental backdrop. Traders may only want to focus on the UK GDP and industrial production figures, as well as euro area industrial production.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, the speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin is worth noting. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting the key rate in September is almost 100%, but there are currently rumors that the central bank might lower the rate by as much as 0.5% at once. It is also important to know how many rounds of monetary policy easing will take place before the end of the year. The market is counting on two cuts of 0.25% each. If Fed officials start talking about a deeper easing, this could further reduce demand for the dollar.

The top priority for traders remains the trade war, which took on new momentum last week. We still believe that any trade agreements that keep tariffs in place are essentially the same trade war, but "under a different label." For the U.S., deals like those concluded with the European Union or Japan are, of course, beneficial. Therefore, each new similar agreement could trigger an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. However, on a global and fundamental scale, the market will keep in mind the new trade architecture and Donald Trump's protectionist policy.

Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may take a pause or continue a calm, measured rise. Today's macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop is likely to have only a limited impact on the movement of both pairs. Overall, however, we still expect further growth. For the euro, it is worth waiting for new trading signals to form. For the British pound, the 1.3574–1.3590 area will indicate the likely direction on Thursday.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.