Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 147.20 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of this level happened when MACD was already in the overbought zone, which enabled scenario #2 for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by more than 60 pips.

The difference between the US GDP revision and the market's reaction to USD/JPY is a vivid example of how fundamental economic data can be overshadowed by sentiment and speculation, especially in the currency markets. On the one hand, we see a clear sign of economic strength — the revised US GDP growth, which should typically strengthen the national currency. On the other hand, traders seem to believe that the dollar's long-term prospects depend more on how the Federal Reserve will adjust its future monetary policy.

Today's data on Japan's unemployment rate and retail sales volume did not support the yen, as they matched economists' expectations. Investors are likely waiting for more substantial catalysts, such as the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where the current monetary policy could be reviewed. The influence of external factors also shouldn't be underestimated. The US dollar's weakness, caused by expectations of Fed rate cuts, is also supporting the yen.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point is reached around 147.10 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.60 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.60, I plan to exit buys and open a sell position in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair on pullbacks and significant USD/JPY corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.75 price level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the 147.10 and 147.60 levels.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the 146.75 level (red line on the chart) is broken, which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.32, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip move the other way from that level). The higher you sell, the better. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.10 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 146.75 and 146.32.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.