Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some of them may trigger a market reaction. First and foremost, attention should be paid to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Many consider the PCE index to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, though we don't necessarily agree. Besides, significant deviations from forecasts for the PCE are extremely rare. Thus, in both cases, a market reaction is likely only if the actual readings significantly diverge from expectations.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

Among Friday's fundamental events, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech should be noted, but as we mentioned earlier, there are currently no pressing questions for the ECB. That is, we should not expect any new statements on monetary policy from the ECB's head at this time. The rhetoric of representatives of the ECB may change over time as inflation rises or falls, but for that to happen, we need to wait for the next inflation reports or other important data. Additionally, today, there will be speeches by Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, and Raphael Bostic. Recall that within the FOMC, there are currently only three open "doves" ready to vote for a rate cut at every meeting. There are not enough of them to consider the whole committee "dovish."

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in either direction. Both the euro and the pound have fallen sufficiently over the past week and a half to warrant an upward corrective bounce. However, two more relatively important indicators will be released in the US today, which could spark another wave of dollar growth. Traders will need to adapt their strategies in response to developments. For the euro, the 1.1655–1.1666 area can serve as a trading zone. For the pound sterling, look at the 1.3329–1.3334 area, from which the price has already bounced twice.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.