Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a positive bias, although it remains below the $4,450 level amid mixed fundamental signals. Lower US Treasury yields and weak ADP employment data released on Wednesday are weighing on the US dollar, supporting gold's recovery after an optimistic rebound from a nearly four-week low.

However, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and inflationary risks stemming from higher energy prices may affect Treasury yields, in turn limiting the precious metal's upward potential. Geopolitical uncertainty may also support the dollar as a safe-haven asset, warranting caution when opening positions in anticipation of further gains in gold.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 62% probability of a rate hike by the US central bank at its upcoming meeting on September 15–16. These expectations were reinforced by hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last Friday. There are also growing concerns that higher energy prices could once again intensify inflationary pressures, encouraging tighter monetary policy from the Fed and potentially limiting the dollar's decline and, consequently, gold's upside.

It is worth noting that oil prices are trading near the highest level since July 24, reached on Wednesday, amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, including new US strikes on Iranian facilities and retaliatory attacks by Tehran in the Persian Gulf.

Adding to the tensions is US President Donald Trump's statement that he is prepared to launch a new attack on Iran. This, combined with the ongoing clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, is supporting the geopolitical risk premium, which is likely to continue supporting both oil prices and the US dollar. Therefore, it would be reasonable to wait for sustained buying pressure before concluding that gold has bottomed and opening new bullish positions.

For better trading opportunities, traders may wait for the release of the important US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will provide additional signals about the future direction of Fed policy and help determine the next phase of the XAU/USD pair's movement.

From a technical perspective, if gold breaks above $4,450 and closes above this level, further bullish strength can be expected. At the same time, the oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage. In the event of a decline, the nearest support is located at $4,360, the 100-day SMA.