Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1484 aligned with the MACD indicator beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for purchasing the euro. However, the pair did not rise afterward, resulting in a loss.

The euro strengthened against the US dollar, driven by the absence of economic data from the US and a holiday on several exchanges. Nevertheless, this should not be seen as a shift in the long-term trend. It's likely a short-term improvement due to the current market environment. Any geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East could quickly revive demand for the dollar, so expecting a sustained bullish trend for the euro is premature.

The spotlight will be on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI), private sector lending dynamics in the eurozone, and data on consumer confidence in the region. Other less significant but still noteworthy releases include changes in the M3 money supply and the European Central Bank's economic bulletin. Special emphasis will be placed on consumer confidence—its decline may reflect household concerns about the economic outlook, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and slower economic growth. Private sector lending trends will also be closely watched. Rising credit volumes may indicate positive business sentiment and a willingness to invest, a favorable economic signal. However, overly rapid credit expansion could overheat the economy and trigger asset bubbles.

Germany's PPI, a key inflation indicator, will shed light on the cost pressures businesses face and their ability to pass rising costs on to consumers. High readings may signal continued consumer inflation.

Lastly, the ECB's economic bulletin will provide a comprehensive analysis of the eurozone's economic situation and potentially reveal the central bank's future monetary policy direction.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today at 1.1533 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth today would depend on strong data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1514 twice a row while MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward 1.1533 and 1.1571 may follow.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1514 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1486. I will exit and buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Selling pressure may return if the data is weak.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1533 twice a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1514 and 1.1486 may follow.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.