The minutes from the RBA's August meeting, published on Tuesday, put immediate pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Reacting to the release, the price fell by several dozen points to the mid-0.64 area. However, buyers soon regained the initiative, sending the pair back towards the 0.6500 resistance level, which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart. The Aussie is once again following the greenback, which itself can't decide on the direction of its movement.

But let's start with the RBA "minutes." As previously mentioned, the minutes of the August meeting did not bring any hawkish surprises. The document reflected a dovish stance from the central bank, which, following the meeting, cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%. At the same time, the minutes weren't dovish enough to pull the AUD/USD pair to the base of the 0.64 area or lower.

In general, the RBA Board members tried to maintain a balance in their rhetoric, using standard or, rather, vague wording. In particular, the central bank pointed out that there is no pre-agreed trajectory for lowering the policy rate—the pace of monetary easing will depend on incoming data and the balance of global risks. The central bank also noted that during the meeting, they considered arguments for both gradual rate cuts and more aggressive ones.

A gradual scenario will be implemented if the Australian labor market remains stable and inflation steadily approaches the middle of the target range (2-3%). However, if the labor market begins to cool rapidly and global risks rise significantly, the central bank will resort to swifter rate cuts.

At this stage, in the view of RBA members, Australia's labor market remains "somewhat tight," inflation is slowing but still above average, and domestic demand is recovering. All these are arguments in favor of a smooth 25-basis-point stepwise rate reduction.

At the same time, members of the central bank expressed general confidence that further rate cuts will be required next year. The pace of reduction will depend on the data received.

Thus, the minutes repeated the key messages of the accompanying RBA statement: Board members confirmed they will follow the declared course of monetary policy easing. However, at the same time, the central bank did not announce or hint at an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts (i.e., did not suggest a one-off 50-point cut).

In other words, the market did not hear anything new. The only exception is the signal that the RBA intends to continue easing monetary policy next year. The market had anticipated this, but the central bank had not explicitly stated it before.

This is precisely why the minutes had such a weak impact on AUD/USD. Now, all attention shifts to key macroeconomic reports on inflation growth and (especially) the labor market in Australia. The August "Australian Nonfarm Payrolls," which will be released in the second half of September (a few days before the RBA's September meeting), as well as Q3 CPI growth data (to be published in October), will decide the fate of the interest rate. More precisely, these releases will indicate the pace at which the central bank plans to lower the rate in the near future. Either the RBA will resort to two rounds of cuts in November and December (a total of 50 basis points), or limit itself to just one more cut by the end of the year.

Why, despite the dovish minutes, is the Australian dollar in tandem with the greenback trying to return to the 0.65 area? In my opinion, several factors are at play in this situation. First of all, the RBA minutes are too vague. For example, if employment in Australia rises, unemployment falls, and inflation accelerates, the RBA may retain its wait-and-see attitude not only in September but also in November. By the way, according to preliminary forecasts, the monthly CPI for July (to be published on August 27) is expected to accelerate to 2.3%, after falling to 1.9% in the previous month. Against this backdrop, short positions on AUD/USD appear to be a risky strategy.

Besides, the downward momentum faded against the backdrop of overall weakness in the US currency. The Dollar Index was under pressure on Tuesday, as market participants interpreted the scandal surrounding Lisa Cook, who held the position of Federal Reserve Board governor, negatively for the greenback. Or rather, "held," since Donald Trump ordered her dismissal due to allegations of fraud (despite there being no official charges and no proven guilt in court). Obviously, a legal battle lies ahead, one that's sure to reach the US Supreme Court. After a pause, the market nevertheless decided that the situation is not in favor of the greenback, and the US currency weakened across the board.

However, in the context of AUD/USD, it's worth noting that buyers have still not managed to overcome the 0.6500 resistance level (the Tenkan-sen line on the D1 timeframe), so opening long positions is advisable only after the pair consolidates above the 0.65 level. The northern target is 0.6560, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.