Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1534 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the accuracy of the entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1573.

Today, the U.S. will publish data on initial jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI). These economic indicators will provide valuable insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. The number of initial unemployment claims reflects the current labor market conditions. An increase in this figure may indicate a decline in job creation and a rise in layoffs, which could negatively affect consumer spending and overall economic growth.

The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator of inflation. A rise in PPI may signal upcoming increases in consumer prices, as companies typically pass their higher costs on to end consumers. Given Trump's trade policy, the Fed has to scrutinize the PPI to assess inflation risks and make appropriate decisions.

The market and traders will closely watch both figures—jobless claims and PPI—. If the data point to a slowdown in economic growth and rising inflationary pressures, expectations for future Fed policy may be adjusted, affecting overall market sentiment.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching the entry point around 1.1612 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1676. At 1.1676, I plan to exit the buy trade and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip movement back. Buying the euro today is advisable only after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1567 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward 1.1612 and 1.1676 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches 1.1567 (red line on the chart), with a target of 1.1518, where I plan to exit the short and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound). Selling pressure on the pair may return after strong data.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1612 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the upside potential of the pair and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.1567 and 1.1518 may follow.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.