US stock indices closed mixed last Friday. The S&P 500 inched up by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.33%. The industrial Dow Jones declined by 0.14%.

Asian stocks have been falling for the third consecutive day, as the momentum from recent trade agreements has faded and investors remain cautious ahead of key economic data and corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, mainly due to losses in Hong Kong stocks. The US dollar stabilized after posting its strongest gain since May. S&P 500 futures grew by 0.2% after Monday's session, where the indices remained largely unchanged but still closed at record highs. The euro slightly declined after its steepest drop in two months during the previous session. US Treasury bonds edged higher, pushing the 10-year yield down by one basis point to 4.40%.

The optimism driven by recent tariff agreements with Japan and the European Union is fading, as investors shift their focus to a range of key indicators—from employment and inflation to broader economic activity. The spotlight is now on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, along with earnings reports from four large-cap tech companies.

Now that there is more clarity around tariffs, central banks may begin adjusting their policies toward easing. While the EU has avoided an imminent trade war with the US, markets and a growing chorus of critics have dampened initial hopes that the deal would restore a sense of stability to transatlantic relations.

Many European leaders have defended the trade agreement struck with Donald Trump, while industry representatives in Germany warned that it leaves the automotive sector vulnerable and weakens the competitiveness of European companies. The Dutch Minister for Foreign Trade called the deal "imperfect" and urged the European Commission to continue negotiations with the US.

Meanwhile, US and Chinese officials have completed the first of two days of negotiations aimed at extending the tariff truce beyond the mid-August deadline and discussing ways to maintain trade relations while ensuring economic security. According to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, additional talks with India will also be needed to reach an agreement.

In the coming days, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a key event. The Bank of Japan is also set to hold a meeting to decide on its monetary policy. Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are gathering today at the central bank for a two-day meeting to discuss interest rates amid intense political pressure, shifting trade dynamics, and economic contradictions.

It is clear that the Fed has adopted a data-dependent approach. Key focus will now be on non-farm payroll data, which could play a decisive role in the Fed's short-term policy decisions.

Commodities Oil prices were volatile after President Donald Trump urged Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine promptly, warning of potential secondary economic sanctions. Fidelity International forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, as the Fed cuts rates to cushion the impact of the US economic crisis, the dollar weakens, and central banks continue expanding their balance sheets.

Technical outlook for the S&P 500

The main goal for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $6,400. Achieving this would signal further upside potential and open the path to a new level at $6,423. Another important objective for the bulls is to gain control over $6,434, which would further strengthen the buyers' position.

In case of downward movement due to reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around the $6,392 area. A break below this level could quickly push the index down to $6,383 and open the road toward $6,373.