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26.09.2025 10:23 AMOn Thursday, the EUR/USD pair made another reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling to the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. A rebound from this zone worked in favor of the euro and the beginning of growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. currency and a renewed decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level. A firm move above the 1.1695 level would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave easily broke the previous low. Thus, the trend has now shifted to bearish. Recent labor market data and evolving monetary policy expectations from the Fed support the bulls, but the bears continue to find reasons to counterattack.
On Thursday, the news backdrop favored the bears. Two U.S. reports, both above expectations, allowed the bears to launch a powerful new attack. The U.S. economy posted higher-than-expected growth in the second quarter, which helped strengthen the dollar further. It's also important to note that the Q2 GDP figure has been revised upward twice. The durable goods orders report also significantly exceeded forecasted values, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar. As such, the dollar's current growth appears fully justified. The question is: How long will it last?
In my opinion, the dollar has entered a "lucky streak" that is fueling its rise. From a broader perspective, the dollar's position remains extremely challenging due to the Fed's monetary policy and Donald Trump's trade policies. However, from time to time, the U.S. dollar can still show that it's not defenseless.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above a horizontal channel, giving traders hope for further growth. Quotes have returned to the 1.1680 level. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 161.8% corrective level at 1.1854. A consolidation below 1.1680 would suggest further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. No emerging divergences are currently observed.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,788 Long positions and opened 3,130 Short positions. Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, largely thanks to Donald Trump, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of Long positions held by speculators is now 253,000, while Short positions number 135,000—a nearly twofold gap. Additionally, note the number of green cells in the table above, indicating strong accumulation of long positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro keeps growing, while interest in the dollar falls.
For thirty-two consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing their short exposures and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, given their potential to create far-reaching, structural challenges for the U.S. Despite notable trade agreements being signed, many key economic indicators continue to decline.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On September 26, the economic calendar featured four events, with Lagarde's speech standing out most. The impact of the news on market sentiment is expected to be present but relatively weak during the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair was possible upon a close below the support level of 1.1789–1.1802 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1637–1.1645. All targets have been reached. New short positions may be opened on a close below the 1.1637–1.1645 zone, with targets at 1.1590 and 1.1544. Buying opportunities may arise today on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone, with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1789–1.1802.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1789 to 1.1392 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
