On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward move after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645 and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.1695. Thus, growth may continue today toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a return to the 1.1637–1.1645 zone.

The wave setup on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bearish" for now. However, recent labor market data and shifting Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, meaning the trend may begin to change again this week. To end the "bearish" trend, the price must consolidate above the last peak at 1.1819.

On Friday, traders' main focus was the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 55.1 points, below expectations. Personal consumption expenditure price index and household income and spending matched forecasts. U.S. consumer confidence has been declining repeatedly. While not the most crucial indicator for traders, on Friday it weighed on the dollar. Meanwhile, bulls gained ground on news of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, as well as the looming threat of another government shutdown. I would also note that all the "bearish" factors (and there were not many of them) have already been priced in by traders. Thus, I expect the "bullish" trend to shine anew. This week brings many important events and reports, with particular interest in U.S. labor market and unemployment data. These will shape FOMC monetary policy for the rest of the year. If results are negative, the likelihood of additional easing will grow. That would be a double blow for the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the euro near the 1.1680 level. Growth may resume toward the 161.8% corrective level at 1.1854. A close below 1.1680 would favor the U.S. dollar and open the way for further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. No developing divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the last reporting week, professional players closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, compared to 138,000 short positions. The gap is practically twofold. Also note the number of green cells in the table above, which show strong buildup in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing while interest in the dollar is declining.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they can create numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

September 29 – the economic events calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:

Sales of the pair were possible after a close below the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1637–1.1645. All targets have been reached. New sales will be possible after a close below 1.1695, targeting 1.1637–1.1645.

Purchases were possible on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone, with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1789–1.1802. These trades can be kept open today with stop-loss moved to breakeven.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.