I want to remind you that, in addition to Stephen Miran, the Federal Reserve has at least two other open "doves": Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Both were appointed by Republican presidents, both are willing to vote for a rate cut, and both believe that the labor market is currently more important than inflation. However, Waller and Bowman operate with much more nuance than Miran. They do not diverge from the general consensus among FOMC members. At this time, many Fed policymakers support easing monetary policy, so it would be strange to see a "hawkish" stance from Waller and Bowman. However, by early 2026, most FOMC members may opt for a pause instead of further easing.

At that point, Waller, Bowman, and Miran will need strong support to continue advancing the ideas of Donald Trump and Scott Bessent. Each vote will then count. What if a deal between Trump and Cook truly exists? Then there could be four Fed governors who might "impartially" start to believe that inflation can be sacrificed for the sake of saving the labor market. And by May, there will be five. Trump would only need to find one more Fed governor willing to change their opinion.

Indeed, all of the above is my personal viewpoint and hypothesis. Undoubtedly, no one will ever know about the various "behind-the-scenes" dealings within the Fed. At the same time, it is unlikely that anyone would deny that such "behind-the-scenes" dealings are present everywhere, all the time. For instance, the current decline in the euro and the pound clearly did not occur in isolation. The market couldn't just change its attitude toward the dollar; it had been panic-selling for 7-8 months straight. What has changed in the last few months that has caused the dollar to stop being "in disgrace"? Something is clearly happening in the world that most market participants can only speculate about.

By the way, Lisa Cook's colleague Mary Daly indicated that she might also vote for a new round of easing in December, but she must be convinced that such a decision is genuinely necessary. The "shutdown" in the US has lasted for 35 days now, and tomorrow a new record will be set. When reports on unemployment and payrolls will be released next is unknown.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend. Currently, the market is in a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the future decline of the US currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25 level. At this time, we can observe the construction of corrective wave 4, which takes on a very complex and elongated form. Therefore, in the near future, I still consider only long positions, as any downward structures appear to be corrective. The latest structure—a-b-c-d-e—may be nearing completion.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive trend section, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 takes on a three-wave form, and its structure is significantly more elongated than wave 2. Another downward corrective structure is nearing completion. I continue to expect that the main wave structure will resume its development with initial targets around 38 and 40 levels, and I believe this could happen as early as the beginning of November.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in market movements, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in directional movements, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.