Brent crude oil futures rose to $67.2 per barrel on Monday, continuing the upward trend that began on Friday due to concerns over Russian oil supply disruptions, caused by intensified Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and difficulties in peace negotiations. This has increased the risk of further sanctions from the West.

Overall, Brent remains in a broad sideways range, fluctuating between $65 and $67.4 per barrel. The current dynamics reflect the contradictions shaping the market. On the one hand, geopolitics: fires at Russian oil refineries, Trump's statements about potential serious sanctions against Russian oil, and pressure on India and China via the G7 format create a risk premium in the price. Any hint of supply disruptions strengthens Brent's support.

On the other hand, the fundamental picture looks heavier. US inventories are rising faster than expected, seasonal demand is weakening, and Saudi Arabia and other producers are preparing to ramp up exports. Adding to this are the latest macroeconomic data from China — industrial production and retail sales grew below expectations.

This is a key signal: the largest consumer of oil is losing momentum, and the outlook for demand is becoming increasingly less convincing.

Investors are also taking into account the reduction of long positions in oil by hedge funds to a historic low. This is a sign that large players are not seeing reasons to bet on sustained growth.

As a result, the balance remains fragile: the market is holding on to a nervous risk premium, but the actual picture of supply and demand tilts the scale toward downward pressure.

Oil: technical picture

Brent has consolidated in the range of $65–67.4. The lower boundary ($65) acts as a buyer's zone, while the upper border ($67.4) is the seller's zone. A breakout above $67.4 would open the path to $68–69, and eventually to the 200-day moving average at $70.3, but for now, the market is clearly not ready for such a move.

On the contrary, testing $65 seems to be the more likely scenario in case of weak US data or confirmation of inventory growth from the EIA. A strong driver will be the upcoming Fed meeting: monetary policy easing would support commodities, but without it, oil risks remaining in a sideways range.

Gas: fundamental picture

The gas market has once again come under pressure from the statistics. Inventories grew by 71 billion cubic feet in a week — significantly above the five-year norm. Even with forecasts for warmer weather and potential increased consumption, the surplus in storage remains the key limiting factor.

LNG exports are also stalling: September deliveries averaged 15.6 billion cubic feet per day, compared to 15.8 in August.

A slight decline in production in the lower 48 states, down to 107.3 billion cubic feet, was almost ignored by the market. Supply remains close to record levels, and this is enough for any attempt at price increases to be temporary.

Gas: technical picture

Gas futures have corrected to support at $2.921 and rebounded upward. The next resistance is at $3.022. If this level is surpassed, prices will have a chance to return to $3.177.

The technical structure is not yet forming a reliable short-term trend: the market is balancing between excess inventory and attempts by buyers to keep the price above $3. A breakdown below $2.921 would open the way to $2.865, which would return the market to the August lows.

Both markets are entering a week filled with significant events. For Brent, the key event will be the Fed meeting: monetary policy easing could provide a chance to break out of the sideways range, but without support from demand and with rising inventories, this will be very difficult.

Gas remains at the mercy of storage levels: excessive inventories and declining exports continue to weigh on the market, and only temporary weather factors provide the chance for short-term rebounds.