On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling short of the 1.1789 level by just 8 points. Subsequently, the pair declined to the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and further decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave did not break the prior low. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish," though not very strong or confident. Recent labor market data and shifting Fed monetary policy prospects support only bullish traders.

On Tuesday, there was little economic data globally. The annual Nonfarm Payrolls report failed to bring optimism to U.S. dollar buyers, but bears still managed to mount a mixed attack during the day. I do not consider the dollar's rise amid another weak U.S. labor report to be justified. However, the market may have its own view. Today, the U.S. Producer Price Index will be released, followed tomorrow by the Consumer Price Index. I cannot say that these two reports will determine the Fed's monetary policy decision next week, because they will not. For the Fed, the labor market, which has been weakening for four months, remains the top priority. Inflation temporarily takes a back seat. Still, it could worsen the dollar's position if the August PPI and CPI come in weaker than expected. Low inflation would suggest that Donald Trump and Scott Bessent's calls for Fed easing are justified. In my view, U.S. inflation will continue to rise, but now the pace matters. If inflation growth is weak or absent, the Fed will have more grounds for aggressive policy easing.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal channel, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level – 1.1854. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today. A rebound from 1.1854 would favor the U.S. dollar and a correction downward, while a close above 1.1854 would increase the chances of continued growth toward the next target at 1.2066.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the last reporting week, professional players closed 2,726 long positions and opened 751 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 255,000, compared with 136,000 short positions. The gap is nearly twofold. Also note the large number of green cells in the table above, showing strong increases in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For 30 consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they can cause long-term, structural problems for the U.S. Despite the signing of several major trade agreements, some key economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the U.S. and EU:

U.S. – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

On September 10, the economic calendar contains only one entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment Wednesday may be limited.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair may be considered today if the hourly close is below 1.1695, with a target at 1.1637–1.1645. Buying is possible on a rebound from 1.1695, with a target at 1.1789–1.1802.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.