While financial mainstream market participants are mulling over recession risks and interest rates, Bitcoin is steadily gaining ground. April has turned out to be the strongest month for the leading cryptocurrency since spring 2021, with Bitcoin-based ETFs seeing record capital inflows.

But there are some pitfalls beneath the optimism. Key on-chain indicators suggest that euphoria is rising, possibly bringing the market closer to a top than it seems. Today, more than ever, it's vital to ask: Is this the beginning of a new bull run or the final stage before a correction?

ETFs on steroids: institutional appetite is growing

The primary fuel behind Bitcoin's recent rise isn't retail FOMO, but rather a steady stream of capital into exchange-traded funds. On just April 29, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted $191 million, with $173 million flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. Once again, IBIT from BlackRock dominated with $216.73 million in net inflows.

Yes, other funds (BITB, ARKB, FBTC) saw outflows, but this appears to be capital rotation, not an exodus. The total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs have reached $110.17 billion — an all-time high. Daily trading volume also impresses at $2.01 billion.

This is no longer "retail wallet dust" — it's large-scale institutional capital following long-term accumulation strategies. These investors aren't just entering the market — they're establishing their presence. In this light, ETFs become a market confidence barometer: big players are willing to weather volatility just to stay on board.

The Blockchain doesn't lie: 85% of Bitcoin holders are in profit — a red flag?

On-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. A key indicator, "supply in profit" from CryptoQuant, shows that 85% of all BTC is currently held above its purchase price.

At first glance, this looks great: most investors are in profit. But historically, such levels often precede corrections, not continued rallies. Profit invites emotion, and emotion leads to selling, especially as we approach the psychological threshold of 90%, a level typically linked with peak euphoria.

Analysts remain cautious: while this threshold hasn't been crossed yet, the market momentum may still hold. But the potential top is already visible on the horizon.

Derivatives are boiling: call options are soaring. Could it be a trap?

Another layer of insight comes from the derivatives market. Over the past three days, open interest in Bitcoin options has grown by $1 billion. Notably, it's heavily skewed toward calls. On Derive.xyz, 73% of premiums are being spent on calls, with a 3:1 call-to-put ratio. For Ethereum, it's even more extreme: 4:1, with 81.8% of premiums on calls.

That's a powerful bullish signal — on the surface. But when everyone is on the same side, even a small market pullback can trigger cascading liquidations. If the price doesn't grow higher, this option-fueled optimism could quickly backfire.

Also notable: implied volatility is dropping — BTC's 7-day IV has fallen from 53% to 38%, suggesting either a mispricing of risk or the calm before the storm.

Demand paradox: price rises while short-term holders sell off

Analysts are most concerned by the behavior of short-term market participants. CryptoQuant's demand impulse indicator is now deeply negative: -483,860 BTC over 30 days. This means short-term holders are exiting en masse, not waiting for higher highs.

The moving average of this metric is also negative: -310,700 BTC — a pattern unusual for a strong bull market, especially one fueled by ETF accumulation.

In effect, retail is cashing out while institutions are buying in — but the real question is, who's right? If history repeats itself, like in summer 2021 or spring 2022, we could be in a distribution phase, where the market appears strong, but is already losing momentum.

Arthur Hayes bets on $1M: prophecy or fantasy?

Adding a bold twist to the mix is Arthur Hayes, who reaffirmed at the Token2049 conference that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2028. This isn't just speculation — it's a thesis about the collapse of the global monetary system.

According to Hayes, the Fed won't be able to maintain tight monetary policy due to pressure on the Treasury market and growing deficits. That would mean another round of "Brrrr" — money printing. He believes this will trigger a massive surge in Bitcoin prices.

Hayes urges action: not only to buy crypto but also to diversify into stablecoins and traditional assets. In his view, Bitcoin is the anchor in a storm of macroeconomic instability.

Bitcoin: close to a cycle top, but one last push is possible

At the moment, BTC is trading between $94,000 and $95,000. The key resistance is at $98,000. A breakout above that level — especially with continued ETF inflows and no signs of institutional capitulation — could push the price to $100,000, a critical psychological and technical milestone.

However, a weakening RSI, signs of overbought conditions, and a speculator-dominated structure suggest that without a consolidation phase or local correction, further growth will be shaky.

If the percentage of coins in profit exceeds 90%, it may confirm the formation of a cycle top. That means traders should stay alert: even in a bull market, corrections can be brutal — 20% or more.

May will be pivotal: eyes on the Fed, on-chain activity, and ETFs

Historically, May is a strong month for Bitcoin, with a 67% chance of gains and an average return of +8%. But this year, macro factors matter more than ever. The upcoming FOMC meeting, bond market shifts, and liquidity policies will all be critical.

If the Fed signals rate cuts or new stimulus programs, Bitcoin could see a renewed wave of demand. If not — and the rhetoric tightens — the market may correct.

Pay close attention to network activity: active addresses are rising but haven't yet reached peak levels. If that metric accelerates, it could trigger a new leg up.

Conclusion: follow the data, not the hype

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight. But unlike the hype cycles of 2017 or 2021, today's market is structurally different — driven not just by crowd psychology, but by strategic capital deployment.

ETFs anchor the fundamentals, but on-chain indicators and short-term holder behavior hint at growing tension.

Traders should remember: highs aren't reached in a single day, but the signs of their approach often become clear — only in hindsight. This time, we might just be able to see it coming.