یہ بھی دیکھیں
29.09.2025 12:48 AMThe first week of every month is traditionally the most informative and, as a rule, the most volatile for dollar pairs. October will be no exception. The economic calendar for the coming week is packed with important events, with the release of September Nonfarm Payrolls standing out. After a strong U.S. GDP growth report and a "neutral" PCE index, the NFP release will tip the scales either toward sellers or buyers of EUR/USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls will be preceded by other U.S. labor market reports—JOLTs, ADP, and Unemployment Claims—which may also influence the pair, especially if they fall into the green or red zone. Traders should also pay close attention to ISM indices, which are among the most important macroeconomic indicators. Overall, we are in for an eventful week: the EUR/USD pair will once again enter a zone of price turbulence.
Monday's economic calendar is almost empty, but several Federal Reserve officials will speak, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (non-voting this year), St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting member), and New York Fed President John Williams (voting member). Markets will be interested in their assessment of the economic outlook following the strong Q2 GDP report (revised from 3.3% to 3.8%) and the core PCE index, which remained unchanged from the previous month (2.9% y/y). It is worth noting that most Fed officials (except Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman) opposed aggressive rate cuts. It can be assumed that the above-mentioned members will also take a cautious stance (except Waller), while still allowing for another rate cut before the end of the year.
Also on Monday, the U.S. will publish pending home sales data. This leading indicator of real estate market activity could spark volatility if the actual result deviates significantly from expectations. For the past two months, the index has been in negative territory, but a minimal gain of 0.2% is expected in August.
During the Asian session on Tuesday, China is expected to release its PMI data. The manufacturing PMI has remained in contraction territory (below the 50 mark) since April. In August, it improved slightly to 49.4, and in September, it is expected to rise further to 49.6. A print above the 50 mark could support EUR/USD buyers, as it would boost risk sentiment, with the euro among the beneficiaries—provided that China's non-manufacturing PMI also stays in expansion territory. Forecasts suggest this index will remain at the August level (50.3).
On the same day, Germany will publish preliminary September inflation figures. Most analysts expect headline CPI to accelerate again—from 2.2% in August to 2.3% y/y. The harmonized CPI (EU HICP) is also expected to accelerate to 2.2% (after rising to 2.1% in August). If data come in at or above expectations, EUR/USD buyers will get an additional boost, as German inflation figures often correlate with eurozone data (due on Wednesday).
During the U.S. session, the JOLTS job openings report for August will be released. In July, openings fell to 7.18 million (the lowest since March 2021), against a forecast of 7.39 million. For August, the downtrend is expected to continue, with the indicator projected at 7.15 million. Although JOLTS is a lagging indicator, it adds to the overall picture of a cooling U.S. labor market, which does not favor the dollar.
Another key release on Tuesday will be the Conference Board consumer confidence index. In August, it slipped to 97.4, and in September, it is expected to decline further to 95.3. The release will trigger volatility only if it significantly deviates from the forecast—either above 100 (dollar-positive) or below 90 (dollar-negative).
Key speakers on Tuesday include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voting), Fed Governor Philip Jefferson (voting), Boston Fed President Susan Collins (voting this year), Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (voting), and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
On Wednesday, preliminary eurozone inflation data will be released. Most analysts expect the headline CPI to accelerate to 2.2% year-over-year (from 2.0%), while the core index is expected to remain at 2.3%. Such results could provide limited support for the euro, as markets have already priced in the ECB's wait-and-see stance. Following the September meeting, Christine Lagarde made it clear that rates would remain unchanged in the near term.
Also on Wednesday, the ADP employment report will be published. This report often serves as a barometer ahead of official NFP data. Forecasts suggest private payrolls will increase by only 53,000 in September. While ADP data do not always align with NFP, such a weak result would pressure the dollar.
The September ISM Manufacturing Index will also be released the same day. This key leading indicator of the U.S. economy has remained in contraction territory (below 50) since March. In August, it improved to 48.7 from 48.0, and September is expected to show further growth to 49.1. For dollar bulls, the index must return above 50. Any other result will likely be interpreted negatively for the greenback.
Thursday is likely to be a "calm before the storm." The economic calendar is light, with only the release of U.S. weekly jobless claims standing out. After a sharp spike two weeks ago (264,000), the indicator has declined for two straight weeks (218,000 most recently). For next week, a slight uptick to 229,000 is forecast. For dollar bulls, the figure must remain below 250,000.
Also on Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak. She is not a voting member this year, but will gain voting rights in 2026, so her comments could still provoke some volatility in EUR/USD.
The most important day of the week. On Friday, key U.S. labor market data will be released. Forecasts suggest that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3% in September, while nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by only 50,000 (following a 22,000 rise in August). Average hourly earnings growth is likely to remain at 3.7%. These are weak results. Even an in-line report (let alone weaker data) would put significant pressure on the dollar.
Also on Friday, the ISM Services Index will be published. Analysts expect it to remain unchanged from August, at 52.0.
The results may reshape expectations regarding future Fed policy. At the moment, markets are almost sure that the Fed will deliver at least one more 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end—most likely in October. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of this scenario is currently 88%. The likelihood of an additional 25-basis-point cut in December stands at 65%. ISM data and, especially, Nonfarm Payrolls could either strengthen or weaken this dovish sentiment. Either the market will conclude that the Fed will limit itself to just one more cut this year (which would boost the dollar across the board), or the likelihood of two cuts—October and December—will increase. In the latter case, the EUR/USD pair could return to the 1.1730–1.1850 range.
